Using John Goodman's speech in the movie The Gambler (2014)1 and several scientific articles in the area of Personal Finance Management 2,3, we developed a calculator that tries to apply the concept of Financial Independence Retire Early3 in a more European context.
The concept of the movement is very simple - there is financial independence when the passive income (e.g. Capital Income) in a given period of time is sufficient to support the expenses of the same period. In this scenario, the wealth will never decrease since the Net Result will always be positive - whether the individual chooses to invest his time working or in another activity that does not yield financial returns.
How to use the calculator ?
By filling in less than 9 variables, a model will simulate income, expenses and wealth up to the European average life expectancy (approx. 80-9 years) 8.
We encourage the adjustment of variables to perceive the impact on the progression of values over the years, serving to understand how our family budget decisions affect the future. In the footer of this page you can find a set of links that served as a reference for the construction of this model, as well as decide some values by default.
For a better experience, we recommend the use of a desktop.
Fill in the values
€
Value of the savings at the current time, with Annual Capital Income being an average value applied on all savings.
€
Amount of annual income actively acquired (e.g. Work for Others or Own Business). Default value based on national average 4
%
Percentage of Annual Labor Income that will be added to Savings, to be capitalized in the following year. It is assumed that all the money that is not saved integrates the expenses of Year 0.
%
Average annual labor income growth rate. Default value of 2%, the target inflation rate set by ECB 6.
%
Amount of annual income acquired in a passive way (e.g. Dividends, Disposal of Social Capital, Interest). Conservative value based on the average return of the S&P5005, though portfolio composition should change with time.
%
Average inflation rate to be considered in the model, applied on Annual Expenditures in Year 0. Pre-defined the value of 2% as it is the value mandated to the ECB 6.
Refernce age for retirement, to apply the termination of Annual Labor Income.
Date of Birth in order to calculate the time to retirement and average life expectancy, in Portugal (approx. 80.9 years) 8.
%
Estimate, in percentage, of the pension amount to be received after retirement, in relation to the last 10 Annual Labor Incomes.
Result
Year (Age)
Wealth
Labor Income /
Retirement Pension
Annual Expenses
Capital Income
Wealth Growth
FI 🤑
FI: Financial Independence
References
The Position of Fuck You (John Goodman in The Gambler) YouTube
"The Trinity Study" - Cooley, P. L., Hubbard, C. M. & Walz, D. T. (1998). Retirement spending: choosing a sustainable withdrawal rate. Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors, 20(2), 16-21.